The fourth week of the Premier League is just one sleep away, meaning it’s time to get ready mentally, physically, and spiritually for an action packed weekend of football. This weekend features our second ‘Big 6’ matchup of the young season in United and Tottenham, as well as a London Darby between Palace and Chelsea. We’ll see two of the most prominent managers of attacking football face off in Leeds and City, and the Champions cap the weekend Sunday afternoon (evening if you reside in Europe) against Aston Villa. Plenty of intriguing matchups, as well as solid value from a betting perspective. Above you can find the fixtures list, courtesy of ESPN. Below you can find matchlines for every matchup this weekend, courtesy of Bovada.
And here is the league table heading into the weekend, just for reference (ESPN).
Now, before I get into some match previews let me be clear; I am a fan just like all of you. I do not claim to be an expert, and everything I say should be taken with a grain of salt. These matches are almost impossible to predict accurately, due to the inherent nature of the Beautiful Game. Every action on the pitch – no matter how insignificant or obvious it is – affects every other action in each and every match. A forward failing to press a defender could lead to a pass that ends up leading to a goal scoring move. A goalkeeper coming off of his lone to contest a 1v1 situation can start a counter in the blink of an eye. It is a fluid game. Changes are made on the fly. Both teams have game plans and try to impose their style of play but it does not always work and they have to adjust on the field. Betting on matches is an inherent risk. So if you think betting is something you could see yourself having a problem with, I urge you to stay away from it. That being said, betting on matches can be a lot of fun, and give a casual fan with no real team to support a vested interest in any given match. I proclaim to be an Arsenal fan, but I have no real connection with the squad, so I occasionally will bet on games to give them that extra ‘umph’. If you would like to bet on matches, I certainly recommend Bovada as a resident of the United States. In fact, you can use my link to sign up, and earn a 200% match bonus to get started. Basically, if you decide to sign up, and deposit $100, Bovada will give you $200 of house money in addition to your deposit =. Pretty sweet deal if you ask me. You can sign up here:
https://www.bovada.lv/welcome/P2A4955D6/join?extcmpid=rafcopy
Let’s get into it.
Chelsea vs Palace
Chelsea is a comfortable favorite here, a week removed from their incredible 3-0 comeback against West Brom. I like Chelsea to win outright, but not to cover the goal spread of 1.5. They have had issues defensively early on, as was on case against lowly West Brom. Obviously they can score however, which is why I like them to win this match at home. I’m predicting a scoreline of 2-1, which would be a push against the over under of 3. (P.S. if Christian starts Chelsea probably win like, I don’t know, 50-1? Just saying.)
Chelsea 2 Palace 1
Everton vs Brighton
Everton so far look like one of the best squads in England. They are 3-0 and the third highest scoring squad in the league. Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has five league goals, with a league hattrick, as well as a hatty in their EFL cup match that took place this week. The young striker is in excellent form. So if his entire squad. Brighton looked excellent last weekend against United, but lost in the dying moments on a VAR handball that gave United a penalty as the last action of the match. They’re trending in the right direction, but ultimately I think Everton have too much quality.
I’ll take Everton to win outright, cover the goal spread of 1, and both teams combine to hit the over of 2.5.
Everton 3 Brighton 1
Leeds vs Man City
Leeds showed they can hang with the big dogs right out of the gate, pushing Liverpool to a tight 3-4 match in week 1. Since then, they have won two in a row, and look primed to not only stay in the EPL, but possibly even contend for a Europa League spot. City are coming off a disastrous 5-2 loss to the league leaders Leicester. City’s defensive woes were addressed this week with the signing of Benfica centre back Ruben Dias. It’s no surprise this match has the highest over/under of the weekend at 3.5, as both managers love to press and play attacking football. I expect Leeds to give City everything they can handle and push for a result. I’m taking the draw at +450, which means Leeds covers the spread of 1.5, as well as hitting that high over.
Leeds 2 City 2
Newcastle vs Burnley
I haven’t seen too much of either Newcastle or Burnley so far. When that’s the case I typically try to stay away from the match from a betting perspective. I live feeling confident about the bets I make, and confident is not how I feel about either of these squads. Newcastle drew with Tottenham, but also lost to Brighton. Not much to be said for Burnley thus far, as they have lost all three EPL fixtures this year. That being said, I think the most likely result is a 1-1 draw. That would be under 2.5, and a Burnley cover.
Newcastle 1 Burnley 1
Leicester vs West Ham
Until last weekend West Ham had struggled mightily, conceding 4 and scoring once in their first two matches, both losses. Then, they surprisingly THUMPED Wolves 4-0. Leicester on the other hand have looked the best side in the league, thrashing City last weekend. Interestingly enough, Leicester is favored by only a goal. The over under set at 3, meaning the know-it-alls in Vegas are anticipating a 2-1 Leicester victory. With how the season has gone overall so far this year, I agree Leicester will win, but I think they find one more goal than those in Vegas are predicting.
Leicester 3 West Ham 1
Southampton vs West Brom
This is a match between two teams mightily struggling to start the season. West Brom showed incredible promised opening a 3-0 lead on Chelsea last weekend, but almost predictably squandered it to come away with only a point. Southampton’s lone win came against winless Burnley. So honestly this is anyone’s game to win or lose. Southampton are the favorites and expected to win by a score line of 2-1 according to Vegas. In my humble opinion, it is best to listen to those who create these lines for a living.
Southampton 2 West Brom 1
Arsenal vs Sheffield
Arsenal suffered their first defeat of the season to Liverpool on Monday but find themselves playing a side on the other end of the table this weekend. Sheffield are 0-3, and the only goalless team in the EPL. Arsenal are an improving side, and their defeat to the champs does not waiver my confidence in them one bit. I expect them to control every aspect of the game, and make it another rough outing for Sheffield.
Arsenal 2 Sheffield 0
Wolverhampton vs Fulham
Wolves, after crapping the bed last weekend, get the gift of playing lowly Fulham this weekend. Fulham have been hemorrhaging goals, allowing an abysmal 3.3 goals per game. I like Wolves to get back on track and take it to Fulham.
Wolves 2 Fulham 0
Manchester United vs Tottenham
United are slight favorites in this one. Tottenham have been unlucky with VAR, and United have seen both sides of the handball rule affect them. It’s always fun to see a Jose squad go up against one of his former clubs. I expect this to be the most entertaining match of the week by far. Ultimately, I like United to win, covering the .5 goal spread, and the sides combining to hit the over.
United 2 Tottenham 1
Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Villa are off to a great start with 2 wins to no losses. However, those wins came against dreadful sides in Sheffield and Fulham. The squad they play Sunday is several tiers ahead of both foes they have defeated already. Not much needs to be said about Liverpool. Reigning champs, runaway 19/20 campaign, Salah, Mane, Firmino, etc. etc. The Reds win this comfortably on the road.
Villa 1 Liverpool 3
Alright, that’s all I have in me for the day. Super excited to watch these matches this weekend. Let me know in the comments what your favorite picks are, and where you think I may be misguided. I’m certainly not expecting to go 10/10 this weekend, but stranger things have happened. Have a blessed weekend footy fans.
Footy Foster 